IJS Forecast


Bullish Case: IJS shows strong support around current levels, with historical returns indicating a higher likelihood of positive performance in the next year, driven by small-cap value sector recovery amidst improving economic conditions.


Bearish Case: High implied volatility in near-term puts suggests increased uncertainty and potential downside risks, reflecting market concerns over global economic stagnation and the impact of rising interest rates on small-cap growth.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued recovery, with a 60% chance of 10-20% gains within 12 months;

2. Stagnation at current levels, 30% probability;

3. Downturn risk of 5-10%, 10% probability due to recession fears.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a bull put spread (short 96 put, long 92 put) to capitalize on high implied volatility and a stable price outlook. This strategy leverages potential upside with a favorable risk/reward ratio, aiming for profit as economic conditions firm.


July 25, 2024


BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Forecast

IJS      BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IJS



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.63)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.15)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.15)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.31)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IJS



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.15)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.15)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.31)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.63)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IJS



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.63)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.15)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.15)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.31)





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