ITM Forecast


Bullish Case: A bullish scenario stems from improved market sentiment following stable economic indicators, potentially raising ITM prices towards $50. Increasing demand for municipal bonds amidst low-interest rates could drive upward movements, supported by historical stability.


Bearish Case: Heightened market volatility could lead to significant price declines. Increased inflation fears and potential interest rate hikes might dampen investor sentiment, positioning ITM for potential bearish movements below $45.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Price increase to $50 (30% chance) driven by stable rates.

2. Persistent flat movement (40% chance) reflecting market indecision.

3. Price decline to $44 (30% chance) due to economic uncertainties.


Trading Oracle: Enter a bullish debit spread by buying 47.00 strike calls and selling 49.00 strikes, targeting a price range of 48.50-49.50. This strategy leverages low implied volatility with defined risk, maximizing profit from gradual upward movements.


July 24, 2024


VanEck ETF Trust - VanEck Intermediate Muni Forecast

ITM      VanEck ETF Trust - VanEck Intermediate Muni











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with ITM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.47)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.06)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.2)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.21)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ITM



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.06)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.2)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.21)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.47)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ITM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.47)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.06)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.2)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.21)





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