IVAC Forecast


Bullish Case: IVAC’s recent strong Q1 results and upcoming TRIO system delivery position it well for growth. Historical return surface data shows potential for significant price return over 2-year holding periods.


Bearish Case: IVAC has shown consistent negative price return over multiple timeframes, and recent flat price action coupled with high put option volume suggest market skepticism. High implied volatility indicates significant uncertainty.


Potential Outcomes: IVAC’s price could rise 10-20% (40% chance) if the TRIO system outperforms expectations. Price could remain flat or decline 5-15% (60% chance) due to prevailing market uncertainty and historical performance trends.


Trading Oracle: Recommended strategy: Bearish, 3-month outlook. Implement Helium Short Volatility by selling call credit spreads on $5.00 strikes expiring in October 2024. Expecting IVAC to underperform expectations and capitalize on inflated premiums.


June 30, 2024


Intevac Forecast

IVAC      Intevac











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IVAC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.54)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.2)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.23)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.43)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IVAC



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.2)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.23)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.43)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.54)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IVAC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.54)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.2)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.23)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.43)





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