IWV Forecast


Bullish Case: IWV has shown historical resilience, with continuous long-term gains. AI forecasts predict a neutral market (+0.19%), and historical data indicates high S&P likelihood of positive returns. These coupled with the upcoming Russell index rebalancing favor IWV's bullish prospects.


Bearish Case: Potential market volatility from Russell index rebalancing and high economic uncertainty could trigger pullbacks. Current Helium uncertainty exceeds market volatility, suggesting market unease. Flat recent price action and high volatility in options imply a cautious outlook.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Smooth rebalance (>50%) could result in continued neutral/bullish trends.

2. Market disruption from rebalance & macro factors (~30%) may trigger downturn.

3. Unforeseen shocks (~20%) from ARs and economic events causing high volatility.


Trading Oracle: Implement a risk-defined strategy using delta-neutral credit spreads, exploiting the volatility edge. Favor Iron Condor with IWV trading flat, at $315-$320. Target expiration: Aug 2024. Capitalize on implied volatility discrepancies, keeping risk contained and profiting from theta decay & volatility contraction.


July 16, 2024


BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Russell 3000 Forecast

IWV      BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Russell 3000











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with IWV



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.41)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.71)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to IWV



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.41)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.71)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against IWV



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.92)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.41)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.71)





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