KIE Forecast


Bullish Case: KIE's recent stability indicates potential for upward momentum, as the historical return surface suggests the likelihood of positive returns in the next holding period, supported by favorable implied volatility forecasts and lower market uncertainty.


Bearish Case: Elevated implied volatility trends indicate potential for significant price drops. High put volume reflects market pessimism, while current forward price forecasts align with bearish expectations, possibly driven by broader economic factors.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued flat performance (40%);

2. Moderate price increase driven by positive sentiment (30%);

3. Significant downturn influenced by market volatility and external economic factors (20%);

4. Recovery with minor upward movement (10%).


Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish debit spread by buying the KIE September 49 Puts and selling the 42 Puts. Given the high implied volatility, capitalize on downside potential with limited risk. Target a holding period until the September expiration, given current bearish sentiments.


July 24, 2024


SPDR Series Trust - SPDR S&P Insurance Forecast

KIE      SPDR Series Trust - SPDR S&P Insurance











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with KIE



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.85)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.69)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to KIE



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.69)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.74)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.85)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against KIE



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.85)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.69)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.74)





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