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LAZ Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Lazard's strategic initiatives, particularly in EMEA private credit, and AI price forecast suggest potential upside. The current backwardation in the options term structure indicates potential for upward price corrections.

Bearish Case: Heavy put option trading volume and long-term price decline create a bearish sentiment. Implied volatility disparity with SPY suggests further risk, with historical likelihood of negative returns.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Strategic initiatives drive recovery: 35%.

2. Continued decline due to volatility: 50%.

3. Price stabilization with volatility flattening: 15%.

April 24, 2025

Lazard Forecast

LAZ Lazard

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with LAZ

PNC PNC Financial Services (0.96)

FITB Fifth Third Bancorp (0.96)

IWR BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Russell Mid-Cap (0.95)

KKR KKR (0.94)

MTB M & T (0.93)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LAZ

HELE Helen of Troy (0.0)

KO Coca-Cola (-0.0)

NBR Nabors Industries (-0.0)

HASI Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure (0.01)

ADI Analog Devices (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LAZ

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.69)

UDN Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.69)

DG Dollar General (-0.78)

EC Ecopetrol SA (-0.8)

SPDN Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares (-0.93)

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