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LAZ Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Lazard shows increasing resilience with strategic initiatives and an impressive earnings track record. The market's cautious optimism may drive significant upside, particularly as implied volatility suggests potential price movements in the near future.



Bearish Case: While some optimism exists, concerns about long-term underperformance and institutional sell-offs remain. High implied volatility indicates market skepticism, revealing potential risks to price and stability.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Increased earnings success driving a 40% chance of upside.
  2. Institutional stake reductions leading to a 30% chance of negative momentum.
  3. Market sentiment swings boost price, with a 20% chance.
  4. Strategic failures resulting in a 10% chance for further declines.



Trading Oracle: Given the divergence between Helium and market implied volatility, consider a bull call spread on LAZ targeting strikes at $55-$60, exploiting the current volatility phase. Position for mid-term expiry leveraging potential upside after earnings.


December 19, 2024


Lazard Forecast

LAZ        Lazard

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with LAZ


UNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNM  Unum (0.91)


IWD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWD  iShares Russell 1000 Value (0.91)


EWC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWC  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Canada (0.9)


SPYV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYV  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value (0.9)


JPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JPM  JPMorgan Chase (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LAZ


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (0.0)


SKYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SKYT  SkyWater Technology (-0.0)


ZTS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZTS  Zoetis (-0.02)


GL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GL  Globe Life (-0.02)


BE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BE  Bloom Energy (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LAZ


DLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DLTR  Dollar Tree (-0.8)


NAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NAT  Nordic American Tankers (-0.8)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.81)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.85)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.86)







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