LL Forecast


Bullish Case: Strong potential for funding through investor injection or asset sales, causing recovery. Previous resilience and store expansions could help. [Yahoo]


Bearish Case: With imminent bankruptcy considerations, significant sales decline, and high implied volatility, the bearish outlook is dominant. Previous negative forecasts were accurate. [Yahoo, Helium]


Potential Outcomes:

1. 70% chance of bankruptcy within 6 months if funding fails.

2. 15% chance of recovery with new investments.

3. 15% chance of steady decline after short-term recovery. [Yahoo, Helium]


Trading Oracle: Trade Helium Short Volatility via credit spreads, especially on LL 02/21/2025 1.00 P. Bearish, holding period 6-12 months. Leverage high implied volatility for a high reward:risk ratio and positive edge. Avoid long-term positions due to high bankruptcy likelihood.


July 19, 2024


Lumber Liquidators Forecast

LL      Lumber Liquidators











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with LL



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.85)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.77)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.57)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.76)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LL



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.57)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.76)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.77)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.85)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LL



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.85)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.77)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.57)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.76)





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