LYG Forecast


Bullish Case: Recent buybacks, recovering interest margins, and a low P/B ratio signal potential upside. The strong historical mean-reversion trend supports a bullish outlook.


Bearish Case: Ongoing legal concerns, climate activism disrupting AGMs, and significant branch closures could lead to a bearish outlook. Economic uncertainties add downside risk.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Legal resolutions creating stability (20%).

2. Sustained buybacks (30%).

3. Positive earnings boosting confidence (25%).

4. Ongoing sell-offs (25%).


Trading Oracle: Given the mean-reverting property and current trend, consider bullish debit spreads with a 3-6 month outlook. Favor options like the 10/18/2024 $3.00 call. This strategy aims for high reward:risk with a positive edge and high probability-of-profit, leveraging current undervaluation and mean-reversion tendencies.


June 30, 2024


Lloyds Banking Forecast

LYG      Lloyds Banking











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GS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GS  Goldman Sachs Group (0.92)


EMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMN  Eastman Chemical (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to LYG



BG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BG  Bunge (0.0)


ARI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARI  Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (-0.0)


CWEB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWEB  Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bu (0.0)


BERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BERY  Berry (0.0)


WYNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WYNN  Wynn Resorts (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against LYG



VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.84)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.85)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.86)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.89)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.89)





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