MAX Forecast


Bullish Case: MAX's volatility offers opportunities for substantial gains. High call option volumes indicate a bullish sentiment. The historical data suggests periodic explosive returns though infrequently.


Bearish Case: Consistent underperformance in historical context, recent negative performance trends, coupled with regulatory challenges imply large downside risks. Elevated implied volatility could signal potential future shocks.


Potential Outcomes: High chance (45%) of moderate gains due to mean reversion. Significant downside (35%) possible from regulatory penalties. Minor (10%) chance of extreme positive or negative swings. Medium volatility likely to persist.


Trading Oracle: Trade a long volatility strategy with debit spreads given the high implied volatility. Buy MAX Nov 15, 2024 15.00 Calls at $2.0 and sell 17.50 Calls at $0.95. Holding period: 90-120 days. This setup leverages volatility while managing risk and provides strong reward potential.


July 21, 2024


MediaAlpha Forecast

MAX      MediaAlpha











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MAX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.8)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.37)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.55)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.7)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MAX



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.37)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.55)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.7)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.8)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MAX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.8)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.37)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.55)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.7)





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