MCD Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: McDonald's strong brand, international expansion plans, and loyalty program initiatives signal potential for long-term growth. Historical return data highlight consistent upward trends over time.


Bearish Case: Macroeconomic challenges, increasing competition, and recent technical failures pose significant risks to McDonald's stability, potentially impacting short-term performance and market confidence.


Potential Outcomes: Sales boost via new menu items (60%), operational issues dampening growth (30%), geopolitical tensions affecting international business (30%), dividend hikes attracting income-focused investors (70%).


Trading Oracle: Execute bullish long volatility using a debit spread. Buy 1 $260.0 strike call and sell 1 $265.0 strike call expiring in 3 months. Elevated short-term profitability due to lower implied volatility and positive risk-reward ratio expected from brand initiatives. High edge potential and strong probability-of-profit.


July 23, 2024


McDonald's Forecast

MCD      McDonald's











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Assets that tend to move strongly with MCD



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.5)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.46)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.16)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.52)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MCD



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.16)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.46)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.5)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.52)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MCD



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.5)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.46)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.16)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.52)





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