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MCHP Forecast



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: MCHP shows potential for recovery as semiconductor demand strengthens alongside positive earnings forecasts and strategic growth initiatives. Low implied volatility points to favorable conditions for bullish strategies.



Bearish Case: Market volatility and declining share prices raise concerns about MCHP's near-term performance. Internal executive selling signals potential internal caution impacting investor confidence.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Strong earnings recovery leading to a 10% rise (60% probability).
  • Market corrections suppressing MCHP price around 10% (25% probability).
  • Continued internal selling pressures stock stability (15% probability).



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying MCHP $60 calls while selling $65 calls expiring in January 2025. This strategy utilizes current low volatility conditions, targeting significant upside potential aligned with earnings recovery while managing risk.


December 19, 2024


Microchip Technology Forecast

MCHP        Microchip Technology

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MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MCHP


AVTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVTR  Avantor (-0.0)


MPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPWR  Monolithic Power System (-0.0)


NEOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEOG  Neogen (0.01)


IOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IOVA  Iovance Biotherapeutics (-0.01)


CCJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCJ  Cameco (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MCHP


FFIV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FFIV  F5 Networks (-0.83)


TZOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZOO  Travelzoo (-0.84)


LUMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LUMN  Lumen (-0.84)


VRNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VRNA  Verona Pharma (-0.85)


GDYN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GDYN  Grid Dynamics (-0.88)







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