Bullish Case: MCHP's strong presence in IoT and automotive, coupled with ongoing expansion and dividend growth, positions it well for growth in a recovering semiconductor sector.

Bearish Case: Persistent supply chain issues, recent price declines, high put volume, and market volatility suggest downward pressure on MCHP, potentially exacerbated by increased competition.

Potential Outcomes: -50% chance of price stabilization due to market recovery. 30% chance of price decline stemming from ongoing volatility. 20% probability of growth driven by innovations and strategic expansions.

Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish credit spread by selling the MCHP $60 calls and buying the $65 calls, targeting May 2025 expiration. Leverage current high volatility while betting on further declines due to market sentiment and high put demand. This strategy offers positive edge with a favorable reward-risk ratio in volatile conditions.

February 14, 2025