MO Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Altria's stable dividends and market-leading positions in both traditional cigarettes and e-vapor products provide a strong investment case. Historical reliability in dividends makes MO a compelling defensive stock.


Bearish Case: Declining cigarette sales and increasing regulatory pressures on tobacco products pose substantial risks. Ongoing legal challenges further complicate Altria’s financial outlook, undermining its market stability.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Altria's e-vapor segment gains significant market share, driving 40% growth.

2. Regulatory setbacks and legal issues trim revenues by 30%.

3. Continued dividend stability offsets other declines, yielding 30% steady income.


Trading Oracle: Bearish short-term: Given MO's contango term structure and neutral AI outlook, execute a 7-day bearish call spread by selling OTM $48 strikes and buying $49 strikes. This capitalizes on the slight volatility edge, promising positive return with controlled risk.


July 13, 2024










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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MO



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.25)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.35)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.5)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.62)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MO



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.62)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.5)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.25)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.35)





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