MOAT Forecast


Bullish Case: MOAT shows resilient historical returns and positive long-term trends, with large call option volume and low implied volatility, indicating bullish sentiment.


Bearish Case: Current market conditions display high uncertainty, as indicated by option premiums, alongside the ongoing underperformance relative to major indexes, suggesting potential downside.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Market rally leads to significant gains (45%),

2. Continued flat performance as volatility stabilizes (25%),

3. Downward correction due to macroeconomic factors (30%).


Trading Oracle: Implement a neutral strategy using short straddle debit spreads to capitalize on current high implied volatility. Avoid directional bets, given the mixed sentiment and forecast uncertainty.


July 17, 2024


VanEck ETF Trust - VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Forecast

MOAT      VanEck ETF Trust - VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MOAT



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.47)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.58)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.58)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MOAT



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.47)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.58)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.58)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MOAT



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.88)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.47)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.58)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.58)





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