MOR Forecast


Bullish Case: With Novartis's acquisition adding substantial resources and strong historical returns, MOR is poised for growth upon positive regulatory outcomes for key drugs.


Bearish Case: Potential regulatory hurdles or integration challenges from the acquisition could derail progress, leading to significant price declines.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Acquisition completion (70%): Stock rises.

2. Regulatory delays (15%): Temporary setbacks.

3. Significant hiccup/failure (10%): Major price drop.

4. Other bidder (5%): Potential price spike.


Trading Oracle: Given backwardation and high IV, deploy bullish debit spreads on MOR targeting 6-12 month expirations around the $20-$25 strikes. High short-term volatility allows capturing upside, with positive edge from the anticipated positive regulatory and acquisition outcomes.


July 19, 2024


Morphosys Forecast

MOR      Morphosys











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Assets that tend to move strongly with MOR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.89)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.5)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.71)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MOR



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.5)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.71)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.74)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.89)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MOR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.89)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.5)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.71)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.74)





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