Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Mosaic stands to benefit from growing fertilizer demand fueled by global food security needs, reinforced by its strategic initiatives in cost management and efficiency gains that could drive profitability.

Bearish Case: Concerns about potential oversupply in the agricultural sector and rising geopolitical risks could negatively impact Mosaic's earnings, particularly if market conditions do not favor price supports for fertilizers.

Potential Outcomes:

• 40% chance of strong fertilizer demand growth following global food insecurity trends.
• 30% chance of reduced earnings due to agricultural sector weaknesses.
• 20% chance of regulatory challenges impacting operations.
• 10% chance of a significant operational disruption from external events.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish call spread strategy by buying the December 2024 $26 calls and selling the $28 calls. Given the higher implied volatility and potential price recovery, this trade targets a favorable reward-to-risk of 2:1 while maintaining a high probability of profit at 70%.

December 21, 2024