MOS Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: MOS could benefit from stabilized agricultural demand and improved operational efficiencies, driving gradual price recovery.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility and increased put option activity suggest heightened downside risk due to ongoing external challenges and potential oversupply in agriculture.




Potential Outcomes: 55% chance of a moderate price rebound driven by positive sector trends; 30% risk of further decline due to macroeconomic pressures; 15% chance of stable performance with minimal movement.




Trading Oracle: Adopt a bearish short volatility strategy using credit spreads. Sell near-the-money calls with protective puts further out-of-the-money. Target a 30-day window to capture premium amidst expected price declines, aligning with Helium's bearish forecast for high reward:risk.



February 22, 2025


Mosaic Forecast

MOS        Mosaic











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MOS



PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.87)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (0.84)


RIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIG  Transocean (0.84)


SLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLB  Schlumberger (0.84)


LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MOS



BB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BB  BlackBerry (-0.0)


ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (-0.0)


PTLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTLO  Portillos (0.0)


BZH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BZH  Beazer Homes USA (-0.0)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MOS



EVRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVRG  Evergy (-0.76)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (-0.77)


PM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PM  Philip Morris International (-0.77)


TGTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TGTX  TG Therapeutics (-0.77)


TW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TW  Tradeweb Markets (-0.8)









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