MPC Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: MPC's strong historical returns and expanding renewable diesel initiatives exhibit long-term growth potential. Implied volatility is lower, indicating stability and positive sentiment.


Bearish Case: Environmental liabilities, insider sales, and recent price declines (-20.1% over 90 days) signal potential risks. Implied volatility spikes indicate market uncertainty.


Potential Outcomes: 55% growth likely due to historical performance and renewable initiatives, mitigated by a 30% decline risk from liabilities and insider sales. There's a 15% chance of stagnation balancing pros and cons.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish short volatility stance focused on stability. Implement a credit spread: sell $165 puts and buy $160 puts expiring in 35 days. This harnesses low implied volatility and high edge for substantial profit.


July 14, 2024


Marathon Petroleum Forecast

MPC      Marathon Petroleum











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MPC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.78)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.64)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.79)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MPC



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.64)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.78)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.79)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MPC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.78)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.64)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.79)





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