MPC Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: MPC demonstrates resilience with a 227.5% rise over five years. Historical performance indicates strong growth potential. The relatively lower implied volatility in the term structure suggests stability and positive investor sentiment.


Bearish Case: Environmental liabilities and insider stock sales suggest potential underlying issues. Historical mean reversion and recent price decline imply possible future negative corrections.


Potential Outcomes: Growth (55%): Historical performance, strong earnings. Decline (30%): Environmental liabilities, insider sales. Stagnation (15%): Mixed factors. Balancing these probabilities and historical returns informs risk management.


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June 20, 2024


Marathon Petroleum Forecast

MPC      Marathon Petroleum











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MPC



PSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSX  Phillips 66 (0.95)


VST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VST  Vistra (0.93)


AMLP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMLP  ALPS Alerian MLP (0.93)


DXJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXJ  WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (0.92)


ORN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ORN  Orion (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MPC



PYPL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PYPL  PayPal (0.0)


HYLN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HYLN  Hyliion (0.0)


LULU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LULU  Lululemon Athletica inc. (-0.01)


EH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EH  EHang Holdings Ltd - (-0.01)


WYNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WYNN  Wynn Resorts (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MPC



PACB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PACB  Pacific Biosciences of California (-0.89)


SPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPWR  Sunpower (-0.9)


PLL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLL  Piedmont Lithium (-0.9)


IRBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRBT  Irobot (-0.91)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (-0.91)





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