NBTB Forecast


Bullish Case: With new leadership at NBT Bancorp revitalizing strategies and historical return patterns favoring upward movement, a return to growth is feasible, particularly with NBTB's current implied volatility lower than market expectations.


Bearish Case: The surge in put options volume indicates elevated bearish sentiment, amplified by institutional sell-offs and potential operational challenges during the leadership transition, weighing heavily on NBTB’s price stability.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 25% chance of strong growth due to effective leadership (targeting $55).

2) 15% chance of moderate growth with stability (targeting $42).

3) 30% chance of sideways movement prompted by market consolidation.

4) 30% chance of decline due to external economic pressures.


Trading Oracle: Employ bullish debit spreads on NBTB, capitalizing on the current low volatility. Target near-term options like the $50 calls expiring in November, seeking high reward/risk due to anticipated positive directional movement amid leadership-driven growth.


July 25, 2024


NBT Bancorp. Forecast

NBTB      NBT Bancorp.











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VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.03)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.19)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.3)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NBTB



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.03)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.19)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.3)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.4)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NBTB



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.4)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.03)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.19)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.3)





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