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NFG Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: NFG's historical price growth and mean-reversion tendencies could drive further gains, supported by long-term demand for natural gas and dividends.

Bearish Case: High put volume and elevated implied volatility suggest market skepticism, amplified by environmental concerns and regulatory risks impacting fossil fuel sectors.

Potential Outcomes: 1) Mean reversion continues (55%).
2) Regulatory shifts impact price (20%).
3) Environmental shifts drive volatility (15%).
4) Unexpected sector shocks occur (10%).

April 27, 2025

National Fuel Gas Forecast

NFG National Fuel Gas

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NFG

OUNZ VanEck Merk Gold (0.96)

FOXA Fox Corporation - (0.92)

BK Bank Of New York Mellon (0.9)

VNET VNET (0.9)

AGI Alamos Gold (0.9)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NFG

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (0.02)

HCA HCA Healthcare (0.02)

RMBS Rambus (-0.03)

RVMD Revolution Medicines (0.03)

JDST Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Be (0.04)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NFG

MUR Murphy Oil (-0.91)

GES Guess (-0.91)

RCKT Rocket Pharmaceuticals (-0.91)

CGC Canopy Growth (-0.92)

COTY Coty (-0.92)

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