Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Analysts predict NFLX will benefit from increased engagement and subscriber growth as promotional anticipation builds around the upcoming Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul event. Historical trends show strong returns during such high-profile events, reinforcing positive sentiment.

Bearish Case: Market uncertainty persists with the upcoming fight, potentially leading to volatility. If Netflix fails to leverage this exposure effectively, subscriber growth may stagnate due to competition and macroeconomic pressures, risking a downturn.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of increased user engagement and 10% rise in stock due to fight influence.

2. 30% chance of neutral outcomes with no significant change.

3. 30% chance of a downturn due to operational challenges, leading to a 5-10% drop.

Trading Oracle: Focus on a bullish strategy through a call debit spread targeting $810 calls, leveraging favorable implied volatility spikes from event-driven anticipation. This aligns well with expected price increases while balancing risk effectively. Ensure to assess adjustments closer to earnings in January.

November 12, 2024