NKLA Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: The recent high implied volatility and mean-reverting trend could indicate a potential upside as positive market sentiment or technological breakthroughs may drive speculative interest.




Bearish Case: High financial instability, overwhelming put volume relative to calls, and extensive volatility suggest continuous downward risk, compounded by past controversies and competitive pressures.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 30% chance of financial improvement boosting price (partnerships, hydrogen adoption).
  • 40% continued financial strain and volatility causing further declines.
  • 30% stable growth through strategic alliances.




Trading Oracle: Given the high implied volatility and increased put trading volume, a bearish short volatility strategy is optimal. Execute a short call spread expiring in ~14 days; sell $1.5 calls, buy $2.5 calls, benefiting from expected volatility contraction.



January 21, 2025










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NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (0.75)


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (0.55)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (0.53)


LCID Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LCID  Lucid (0.5)


CALX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CALX  Calix (0.5)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NKLA



SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.0)


CYBR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CYBR  CyberArk Software (0.0)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (0.0)


SHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHW  Sherwin-Williams (-0.0)


TAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAN  Invesco Solar (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NKLA



FEZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FEZ  SPDR EURO Stoxx 50 (-0.57)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (-0.59)


EH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EH  EHang Holdings Ltd - (-0.59)


SCHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHW  Charles Schwab (-0.59)


APH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APH  Amphenol (-0.88)









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