Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: NKLA's strategic advancements in hydrogen truck deliveries could drive significant revenue increases, supported by lower-than-expected cash burn and market demand for zero-emission vehicles. High implied volatility indicates a potential surge in active trading and investor interest.

Bearish Case: Continued management instability, high operational costs, and competitive market pressures may destabilize NKLA, resulting in further declines. Current investor sentiment remains pessimistic, as reflected by the high percentage of put options traded over calls.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful truck deliveries boosting revenue: 35% chance.

2. Financial strain leads to further price declines: 45% chance.

3. Market stabilization with strategic partnerships: 20% chance.

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bearish debit spread by buying puts at $2.0 and selling ones at $1.5, targeting the high implied volatility and potential downside risk. Anticipate a 4-6 week outlook, aligning with earnings announcements. This strategy aims to capitalize on the uncertain market environment, balancing reward and risk.

November 19, 2024