NKTR Forecast


Bullish Case: The recent trend in NKTR's price shows a nearly 100% increase over the past year. Positive Phase II data in upcoming clinical trials [seekingalpha.com] and the significant upgrade in revenue estimates by analysts [Yahoo] could propel the stock higher.


Bearish Case: NKTR has lost significant value long-term and the return surface indicates a high likelihood of negative returns over multiple holding periods. Recent price declines and high implied volatility indicate rising uncertainty.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful Phase II data (Probability: 35%) - Significant upside.

2. Continued underperformance (Probability: 50%) - Decline.

3. Acquisition by larger firm (Probability: 15%) - Moderate upside.


Trading Oracle: Execute a long volatility strategy: debit spread by buying 11/15/2024, $1.50 strike calls and selling $3.00 strike calls. This takes advantage of the elevated implied volatility and offers profit potential if NKTR shows positive results.


June 28, 2024


Nektar Therapeutics Forecast

NKTR      Nektar Therapeutics











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Assets that tend to move strongly with NKTR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.81)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.76)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.57)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.66)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NKTR



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.57)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.66)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.76)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.81)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NKTR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.81)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.76)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.57)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.66)





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