NWN Forecast


Bullish Case: NWN's recent operational improvements and an anticipated increase in energy demand during colder months could drive revenue growth, supported by robust dividend yields attracting income-focused investors.


Bearish Case: Continued pressures from high operational costs, along with potential earnings misses, suggest a challenging environment. High implied volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential downside risk.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Earnings Beat: 20% chance - Operational efficiencies yield results.

2. Meet Earnings Forecast: 50% chance - Stability in operations persists.

3. Earnings Miss: 30% chance - Persisting cost pressures impact results.


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish long debit spread strategy: Buy NWN $40 August '24 call, sell $45 August '24 call. This leverages moderate bullish sentiment with manageable risk and favorable reward:risk profile, aiming for incremental gains.


July 24, 2024


Northwest Natural Forecast

NWN      Northwest Natural











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NWN



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.44)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.04)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.36)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NWN



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.04)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.36)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.44)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NWN



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.44)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.04)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.36)





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