OPAD Forecast


Bullish Case: If the housing recovery accelerates, Offerpad could benefit from increased demand in real estate transactions, leading to improved revenue and market sentiment, potentially driving OPAD's price upwards.


Bearish Case: A sustained downturn in the housing market could severely affect Offerpad's business model, leading to further loss of investor confidence and significant declines in OPAD's stock price.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Housing market rebound (40% chance).

2. Continued decline (30% chance).

3. Stable performance (20% chance).

4. Major partnership announcements (10% chance). Future scenarios were estimated based on historical performance, recent insider activity, and market trends.


Trading Oracle: Given high implied volatility, consider a bullish debit spread with OPAD 5.00 C (Aug) and a long position in 7.50 C (Aug) for potential upside. This setup mitigates risk while leveraging potential upward movement in the short term.


July 25, 2024


Offerpad Forecast

OPAD      Offerpad











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with OPAD



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.86)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.78)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.45)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.67)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to OPAD



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.45)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.78)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.86)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against OPAD



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.86)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.78)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.45)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.67)





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