Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: With recent backing from social media sentiment suggesting cautious optimism, and a spike in implied volatility indicating heightened market activity, PAAS may benefit from potential rebounds in silver prices, leading to robust earnings growth.

Bearish Case: Recent price drops, alongside high implied volatility and mean-reverting historical patterns, suggest a bearish outlook, especially if upcoming market trends or geopolitical issues negatively impact precious metals pricing.

Potential Outcomes:

• Rebound in silver prices leads to a 15% stock increase (40% chance)
• Market volatility results in a price decline of 10% (30% chance)
• Strong earnings report boosts price by 20% (25% chance)
• Geopolitical tensions lead to a 5% drop (5% chance)

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish call debit spread, buying PAAS 01/17/2025 21.00C and selling 01/17/2025 22.00C. High implied volatility (43.5%) supports this strategy while targeting upside potential from expected price movements post-earnings. Assess liquidity; anticipate moderate volatility due to mixed market sentiment and previous historical patterns.

December 20, 2024