PACB Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: PACB's high implied volatility (117.2%) suggests a market ready to price in potential recovery as revenues stabilize. The recent price uptick alongside mean-reverting behavior hints at an investor sentiment shift.




Bearish Case: Continued financial stresses, including high P/S ratios and declining revenues, raise skepticism among investors. With current volatility at significant highs without assurance of positive catalysts, further declines may be imminent.




Potential Outcomes:

1. 35% chance of significant price recovery fueled by robust sales growth.

2. 40% chance of stagnation due to high valuation pressures.

3. 25% likelihood of major decline influenced by broader market volatility and unimpressive earnings results.




Trading Oracle: Embrace a bullish long volatility position by buying $2.00 calls and selling $3.00 calls expiring in January 2025. This exploits high implied volatility and aims for capitalizing on default recovery expectations, aligning risk with current market sentiment.



October 20, 2024


Pacific Biosciences of California Forecast

PACB        Pacific Biosciences of California











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MVIS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MVIS  Microvision (0.89)


FSLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSLY  Fastly (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PACB



TTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTC  Toro (0.0)


LUMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LUMN  Lumen (-0.0)


URA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URA  Global X Uranium (-0.0)


GLPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLPI  Gaming and Leisure Properties (0.0)


CFLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CFLT  Confluent (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PACB



GDDY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GDDY  Godaddy (-0.85)


CL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CL  Colgate-Palmolive (-0.85)


SE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SE  Sea (-0.85)


RSG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RSG  Republic Services (-0.86)


PPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPC  Pilgrim's Pride (-0.86)









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