PBR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Petrobras's implied volatility shows downward trend into late 2024, reflecting declining risk. Historical returns suggest upside potential especially beyond one year with bullish risk 40% more than bearish.


Bearish Case: The term structure suggests upcoming volatility spikes, particularly in the short term. Low recent returns and recent price drop of 12.1% in a week highlight vulnerability. Long-term uncertainty prevails.


Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of continued price oscillation with mild decline; 30% volatility spike affecting short- to mid-term; 20% rally based on historical patterns. Accounting for declining implied volatility later in 2024.


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May 17, 2024


Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras Forecast

PBR      Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: RANDOM (?)











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