PBR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: PBR's bullish risk dominates by 84%, with an AI forecast of +0.03% and a P/B ratio of 1.4. Recent high call volume suggests market optimism.


Bearish Case: PBR has long-term headwinds, down 5.8% from 5 years ago, and faces low options trading volume. Uncertainty and historical underperformance are prevalent.


Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of price stability due to mean-reverting history, 30% chance of volatility spike, 20% potential for upside.


Trading Oracle: Exploit short-term stability with short volatility strategy. Sell $15.0 strike puts expiring in 8 days, and buy $14.5 strike puts. High edge potential, 27% annualized return, leveraging flat volatility term structure.


July 16, 2024


Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras Forecast

PBR      Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. Petrobras











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PBR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.12)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.11)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.17)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.26)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PBR



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.11)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.12)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.17)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.26)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PBR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.12)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.11)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.17)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.26)





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