DK Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: DK's advancement in sustainability projects, improving oil prices, and strong Q2 earnings could push prices higher. Historical price returns indicate a mean-reversion with a tendency for positive returns over the next 1 year.


Bearish Case: Recent cyberattacks on key vendors like CDK Global and further institutional sell-offs might add downward pressure on DK’s price. Elevated implied volatility suggests potential for future price declines.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Outperforming earnings (30%): Price rises.

2. Continuous sell-off (40%): Price drops.

3. Successful sustainability projects (30%): Price appreciation. Probabilities based on historical trends and market volatility analysis.


Trading Oracle: Bullish debit spreads targeting October expiration are ideal given the mean-reverting nature and positive price momentum. Buy $25 calls, sell $30 calls to capture upward movement while limiting risk. High reward-risk ratio and a favorable probability of profit.


June 27, 2024


Delek US Forecast

DK      Delek US











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