PBT Forecast


Bullish Case: PBT shows potential for a rebound, supported by historically high likelihood of moderate returns and market stability. Holding for up to 1 year could lead to significant positive returns.


Bearish Case: Today's data shows -10.1% 90-day decline; historical price return surface indicates a strong likelihood of continued downward trend in short to medium term.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Further decline (-40%, 60%),

2) Mean reversion to historical average (+20%, 25%),

3) Strong recovery due to macro or sectoral events (+40%, 15%).


Trading Oracle: Short-term bearish strategy: Initiate a credit spread involving short $10 put and long $7.50 put 3 months out cutting potential losses aligning with high implied volatility. High probability of profit from a flat to bearish market.


July 23, 2024


Permian Basin Royalty Forecast

PBT      Permian Basin Royalty











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PBT



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.77)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.75)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.36)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PBT



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.36)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.75)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.77)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.83)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PBT



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.77)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.75)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.36)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.83)





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