AI-Powered PCAR Insights




PCAR Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: PCAR at 109 with fair value ~128; resilient earnings and a higher dividend support upside toward 118–123 in weeks-months. PCAR 120C IV ~27.7 with delta 0.23 and call-volume tilt hints modest upside bets. IV surface sits mid-20s–30s, suggesting upside optionality without extreme risk premia. Mean-reversion and valuation support a constructive drift toward 125–130 into early 2027 absent macro shocks.



Bearish Case: PCAR could slip toward 100–104 if macro risk-off intensifies and SPY vol widens. IV around mid-20s to low-30s implies tail risk via puts; negative earnings surprises or weaker demand could re-rate toward the 100s, testing 98–102 on a prolonged risk-off regime.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. 40%: 118–123 by Aug 2026 (mean reversion + dividend uplift).
  2. 30%: Range-bound 105–114 through Sep 2026.
  3. 15%: Breaks above 125 by Nov 2026 (earnings strength).
  4. 15%: 100–104 if macro risk-off spikes SPY vol.


May 22, 2026


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