PCVX Forecast


Bullish Case: With new board appointee John Furey and positive ACIP feedback, Vaxcyte's strategic direction and vaccine innovation might drive significant upside. Implied volatility term structure suggests increasing optimism through October 2024, backing potential market gains.


Bearish Case: Implied volatility surface indicates higher uncertainty for out-of-the-money options, signaling potential downside risks. Historical price mean-reversion and insider sales suggest internal cautiousness, with potential overvaluation at current prices.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive VAX-31 Phase 1/2 data (60%) uplifting share price;

2. Insufficient VAX-31 performance (30%) dampening prospects;

3. Competitive market disruptions (10%) limiting growth.


Trading Oracle: Initiate bullish debit spreads in anticipation of VAX-31 outcomes (Helium Long Volatility). Employ September 2024 expirations to leverage the rising implied volatility curve. This strategy capitalizes on potential asymmetric gains while curtailing downside risk. Optimal risk-reward, high alpha.


July 03, 2024


Vaxcyte Forecast

PCVX      Vaxcyte











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PCVX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.77)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.21)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.56)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.65)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PCVX



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.21)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.56)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.65)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.77)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PCVX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.77)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.21)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.56)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.65)





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