PEN Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Significant call activity and a 54% higher bullish risk indicate strong investor confidence. The backwardation suggests potential short-term price increase as volatility normalizes.




Bearish Case: High price-to-book ratio and mean-reverting historical price action indicate overvaluation. Implied volatility surface shows limited upside potential.




Potential Outcomes: 60% chance of mild bull rally driven by upcoming earnings; 30% flat due to macro pressures; 10% decline on valuation concerns. Implied volatility backwardation suggests near-term bullish bias.




Trading Oracle: Consider bullish debit spreads. Buy February 260 call, sell 270 call. Exploit backwardation and increased call activity. Short-term trade leverages potential volatility snapback with a high reward:risk ratio.



January 16, 2025


Penumbra Forecast

PEN        Penumbra











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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PEN



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