Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Increased ad spending and successful M&A activity, particularly with Hivestack, could drive PERI's revenue recovery. The high implied volatility suggests that investors may expect significant price movements, indicating potential upside in the near term.

Bearish Case: Weak macroeconomic conditions impacting ad spending pose significant risks, particularly with heightened legal scrutiny. The current low price relative to historical highs suggests bearish sentiment may continue to prevail, limiting upside potential.

Potential Outcomes:

• 1. Strong earnings driving 30% upside (25% chance)
• 2. Continued macro headwinds reducing demand, leading to a 20% dip (35% chance)
• 3. Successful integration of Hivestack boosting stock 40% (20% chance)
• 4. A market correction due to external factors causing a 15% drop (20% chance)

Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish long call debit spread using $7.50 and $10 strikes expiring in January 2025, capitalizing on high IV and market momentum. Consider shifting to a bear credit spread if macro indicators worsen. Focus on maximizing risk/reward with close monitoring of market reactions around earnings.

November 28, 2024