PFS Forecast


Bullish Case: The PFS historical price return data indicates potential for significant returns over long periods, suggesting possible recovery-supported by strong institutional backing.


Bearish Case: The consistently high implied volatility across all strike prices and time horizons, along with recent mean-reverting trends, suggests persistent short-term downside risk.


Potential Outcomes: Merger success (35%), sustained downturn due to market conditions (45%), integration challenges post-merger (15%), and economic rebound aiding recovery (5%).


Trading Oracle: Initiate a bearish long volatility strategy: buy August $15 puts, sell August $12.5 puts. Merger uncertainties and elevated implied volatility favor downside. Target 30-40 day outlook, aiming for profit:risk of over 2:1 with high probability of success.


July 07, 2024


Provident Financial Services Forecast

PFS      Provident Financial Services











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PFS



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.36)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.25)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.39)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PFS



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.25)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.36)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.39)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PFS



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.36)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.25)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.39)





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