PHAT Forecast


Bullish Case: PHAT's Implied Volatility Surface indicates potential upside with lower volatility profitability (91.8% for Dec 2024). Helium AI forecast and positive FDA approval of Voquenza bolster sentiment.


Bearish Case: High insider selling, recent neutral trend, and high IV (e.g., 221.7% for July 2024) suggest underlying market skepticism, potential negative catalysts, and price drops.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Favorable FDA outcome (35%),

2) Insider selling continuation (30%),

3) Market stabilization/fluctuation (35%) – derived from historical trends and current sentiment.


Trading Oracle: Employ a near-term credit spread strategy with high IV, leveraging -8% Helium-Market IV. Sell July 19, 2024 $12.50 Calls, targeting price stability and reducing risk. Retain partial long volatility positions for longer-term growth prospects.


June 30, 2024


Phathom Pharmaceuticals Forecast

PHAT      Phathom Pharmaceuticals











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PHAT



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.53)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.15)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.09)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.07)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PHAT



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.07)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.09)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.15)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.53)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PHAT



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.53)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.15)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.09)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.07)





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