PSMT Forecast


Bullish Case: PSMT is undervalued with strong revenue growth and low debt. Rising retail demand in key markets can boost sales, reflected in a bullish volatility surface.


Bearish Case: PSMT shows mean-reverting price action with possibly narrow profit margins. Elevated helium-model implied volatility indicates potential overstated optimism.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued e-commerce growth (30%).

2. Rising Inflation impacts consumer spending (20%).

3. Maintaining mean reversion (50%).


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June 28, 2024


Pricesmart Forecast

PSMT      Pricesmart











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with PSMT



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.81)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.48)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.54)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to PSMT



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.48)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.54)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.62)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.81)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against PSMT



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.81)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.62)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.48)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.54)





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