Bullish Case: Ferrari's strong brand, continued innovation, and stable order backlog provide robust support for future growth. The lower implied volatility trend over time also suggests reduced market concerns, contributing to a positive growth outlook.

Bearish Case: Economic uncertainties and increasing competition from EV manufacturers pose risks. The recent backwardation in the options term structure may indicate short-term volatility and caution about Ferrari's near-term prospects.

Potential Outcomes: Ferrari's market could rise with 45% probability due to brand strength and innovation. Economic headwinds or competition may lead to a downside with a 30% chance. The remainder suggests market neutrality.

Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish debit spread strategy: buy RACE $470 calls and sell $480 calls expiring in 90 days. This aligns with moderate bullish sentiment and capitalizes on potential growth while hedging against short-term volatility. High reward-to-risk ratio with sound probability-of-profit.

February 05, 2025