TEX Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Continued interest in infrastructure projects, combined with recent software innovations and favorable institutional sentiment could bolster TEX's price.


Bearish Case: Persistent insider sales, low options trading volume, and high implied volatility suggest potential downside risk from reduced market confidence.


Potential Outcomes: Strong infrastructure demand (45%), short-term market skepticism leading to price stagnation (35%), continued mean reversion driven by low options volume (20%).


Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish short volatility credit spread: sell 1 $60 strike call, buy 1 $65 strike call, expiring in ~32 days. Capitalizing on Helium's higher implied volatility, this strategy targets a high probability of profit with positive alpha from theta decay.


July 17, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TEX



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.4)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.1)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.12)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TEX



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.1)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.12)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.4)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TEX



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.46)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.4)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.1)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.12)





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