RCEL Forecast


Bullish Case: Recent FDA approval for RECELL GO boosts confidence in AVITA's innovative technology. Mean-reverting price behavior suggests a rebound, with strong odds of hitting higher targets. High implied volatility indicates potential significant upward price movements.


Bearish Case: Record insider selling and high option volume in puts suggest lack of confidence among internal stakeholders. Persistently high implied volatility for OTC strikes reflects ongoing uncertainty. Failure to meet revenue targets or new competition could further pressure stock price.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive market adoption of RECELL GO: 60%

2. Missed revenue targets: 25%

3. Enhanced market share from international expansions: 55%

4. Sustained price volatility: 45%. Predictions adjusted based on recent insider activity and historical price behavior.


Trading Oracle: Engage in bullish debit spreads, purchasing $10 calls expiring Jan 2025 and selling $15 and $17.50 strikes. This leverages low current IV and high future expansion potential. Optimize holding periods to align with upcoming catalysts; high mean reversion probability favors controlled high profits.


July 16, 2024


AVITA Medical Forecast

RCEL      AVITA Medical











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LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.65)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RCEL



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.65)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.63)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.36)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.38)





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