RDW Forecast


Bullish Case: Recent VLEO DARPA contract wins and consistent order growth from Thales Alenia signal increasing demand for RDW's unique space tech. Upward price trends and Helium's bullish forecast add further support.


Bearish Case: High debt, ongoing net losses, and elevated implied volatility indicate market skepticism. Despite recent wins, profitability hurdles and potential insider trading scandals could undermine shareholder confidence.


Potential Outcomes:

1. New tech and contract wins bolster price (70%).

2. Insider trading impacts stock (30%).

3. Continued contract wins lead to revenue growth (80%).

4. Debt triggers sell-off (20%).


Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish debit spread expiring December 2024, buying RDW $6 calls and selling $8 calls. Favorable implied volatility and positive growth outlook suggest high reward-to-risk ratio. Exit on volatility spikes before major announcements for profit.


July 23, 2024


Redwire Forecast

RDW      Redwire











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