REFI Forecast


Bullish Case: Robust demand in the cannabis industry alongside potential regulatory advancements could drive REFI's growth, enhancing credit quality and expanding loan demand. This positions REFI for a strong return trajectory.


Bearish Case: Rising interest rates and high volatility could heighten risks, particularly with operational concentration in cannabis loans. Regulatory challenges may strain borrower performance, leading to potential credit downgrades.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Regulatory progress (30% chance) could significantly boost capital access for cannabis operators.

2. Status quo persistency (50% chance) keeps steady yield.

3. Increased market volatility (20% chance) pressures borrower creditworthiness.


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying long calls at the $17.50 strike and selling higher strikes ($20, $22.50). This leverages higher implied volatility while limiting risk. Strategy targets a 3-6 month outlook, maximizing returns with favorable market conditions.


July 24, 2024


Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Forecast

REFI      Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with REFI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.54)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.09)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.2)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.31)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to REFI



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.09)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.2)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.31)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.54)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against REFI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.54)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.09)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.2)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.31)





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