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REFR Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: REFR's SPD technology finds growing adoption in automotive end markets, supported by strategic partnerships. The broad market environment indicates potential for rapid commercial expansion.



Bearish Case: Historical data shows high likelihood of negative returns and persistent stock underperformance due to volatility and overvaluation concerns. Sluggish commercialization poses a risk.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Continued flat growth, 60%.
  • New strategic deals enhance growth, 20%.
  • Market correction due to overvaluation, 15%.
  • Broad smart glass adoption escalates stock, 5%.



Trading Oracle: The optimal strategy is a bearish credit spread due to high implied volatility and historical downward pressure, with a focus on the next 3-6 months. Target 2.50 strike put options expiring in March 2025. Avoid long volatility plays due to excessive risk ratios.


January 04, 2025


Research Frontiers Forecast

REFR        Research Frontiers

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with REFR


PSFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSFE  Paysafe Limited (0.85)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (0.85)


KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (0.82)


WPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPM  Wheaton Precious Metals (0.81)


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to REFR


TNK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TNK  Teekay Tankers (0.01)


NKLA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKLA  Nikola (-0.01)


IOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IOVA  Iovance Biotherapeutics (-0.01)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.02)


ADM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADM  Archer Daniels Midland (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against REFR


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.78)


WW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WW  WW International (-0.79)


HTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HTZ  Hertz Global Holdings (-0.8)


TDOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDOC  Teladoc Health (-0.82)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (-0.83)







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