SAFE Forecast


Bullish Case: Expectations of increasing adoption in the real estate market and favorable interest rates could push SAFE prices higher, particularly if implied volatility continues to decline below current levels, indicating reduced market fear.


Bearish Case: Potential economic downturns and region-specific real estate challenges could adversely affect SAFE, compounded by high put volume signaling bearish sentiment and eroding historical price stability.


Potential Outcomes:

1. +20% chance of stabilization above current price levels ($23).

2. -30% chance of significant price drop due to high volatility and market uncertainty.

3. +25% chance of a steady rise linked to increased institutional investment.


Trading Oracle: Consider executing a bull put spread on SAFE at $20-$22.50 with a 1-2 month horizon as implied volatility is high, capturing premium for potential upside protection and enhanced yield. Maintain a bullish stance given recent price resilience and institutional buy support.


July 25, 2024


Safehold Forecast

SAFE      Safehold











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SAFE



VGLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGLT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (0.89)


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (0.88)


SPTL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPTL  Active Trust - SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury (0.88)


DRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRN  Direxion Real Estate Bull 3x Shares (0.88)


ZROZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZROZ  PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SAFE



PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.0)


ARR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARR  ARMOUR Residential REIT (0.0)


CRMD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRMD  CorMedix (-0.0)


AMAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMAT  Applied Materials (0.01)


GRAB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GRAB  Grab Holdings Limited (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SAFE



BNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNO  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (-0.67)


USO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   USO  United States Commodity Funds (-0.67)


UCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UCO  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.68)


ARLP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARLP  Alliance Resource (-0.69)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.87)





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