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SAFE Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: SAFE offers long-term growth with its ground lease model amid real estate stability. Declining SPY IV indicates general market confidence, potentially uplifting SAFE.

Bearish Case: High put volume and elevated implied volatility suggest strong market skepticism. Regulatory challenges or economic impacts could further suppress price action.

Potential Outcomes: 1. Stabilize at $15 (40% chance) from current low volatility.

2. Decline to $12 (30%) due to persisting market skepticism.

3. Rise to $18 (30%) if institutional confidence rebounds significantly.

April 17, 2025

Safehold Forecast

SAFE Safehold

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SAFE

EIX Edison International (0.88)

PHM PulteGroup (0.85)

CL Colgate-Palmolive (0.85)

ZROZ PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded (0.84)

ITB BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (0.82)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SAFE

KKR KKR (0.0)

DGRO iShares Core Dividend Growth (-0.0)

JNUG Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bu (0.01)

POWL Powell Industries (0.01)

PTLO Portillos (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SAFE

DAN Dana (-0.65)

MAIN Main Street (-0.68)

FRSH Freshworks (-0.73)

BB BlackBerry (-0.73)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.78)

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