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SAFE Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: If interest rates decline as forecasted, SAFE could experience significant demand from investors, leading to price increases driven by institutional buying and positive market sentiment.



Bearish Case: Increased economic uncertainty or negative financial events could exacerbate volatility, leading to a downturn in SAFE prices, particularly if high implied volatility persists.



Potential Outcomes:

1. +40% chance of sustained price increase if favorable rates emerge.

2. +30% chance of short-term volatility spikes due to high options activity.

3. +20% chance of sideways movement as investors await clarity on economic policy.



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November 12, 2024


Safehold Forecast

SAFE        Safehold

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SAFE


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (0.88)


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (0.85)


MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (0.83)


JBGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JBGS  JBG SMITH Properties (0.83)


JNJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNJ  Johnson & Johnson (0.81)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SAFE


ARCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARCC  Ares (0.0)


BHF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHF  Brighthouse Financial (-0.0)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (-0.01)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (0.01)


V Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   V  Visa (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SAFE


RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (-0.66)


ABNB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABNB  Airbnb (-0.7)


ALV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALV  Autoliv (-0.72)


CTRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTRA  Coterra Energy (-0.75)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.79)







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