SCHX Forecast


Bullish Case: SCHX has shown historic strength, appreciating 179% over 10 years. Positive historical returns and recent institutional investments bolster confidence.


Bearish Case: Market overvaluation indicated by Buffett Indicator and volatility uncertainties suggest potential downturn. SCHX's slight underperformance vs. S&P 500 is noteworthy.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Market surge (+60%) with continued institutional inflows.

2. Correction (-30%) due to overvaluation.

3. Neutral (10%) with minor swings. Probability: Surge (40%), Correction (30%), Neutral (30%).


Trading Oracle: Profitable strategy: Sell 65 put (0.09 δ) and buy 64 put (0.11 δ) credit spread expiring Nov 2024. High reward:risk with edge from elevated Helium vs market volatility. Bullish outlook, 60-90 days.


July 07, 2024


Schwab Strategic Trust - Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Forecast

SCHX      Schwab Strategic Trust - Schwab U.S. Large-Cap











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SCHX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.91)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.41)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SCHX



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.41)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.91)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SCHX



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.91)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.41)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)





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