SCVL Forecast


Bullish Case: Shoe Carnival may perform positively as consumer spending rebounds, bolstered by strong foot traffic in stores. The Q2 earnings reports show potential for better-than-expected results, especially as store expansion continues. A robust holiday season could further enhance profitability.


Bearish Case: Significant insider selling and a flat trading history raise concerns about SCVL's growth potential. Increasing competition in the retail space, alongside macroeconomic pressures, could exacerbate challenges, leading to potential losses in upcoming quarters.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive earnings surprise: 25% chance.

2. In-line earnings, modest growth: 30% chance.

3. Concerns around declining consumer spending: 20% chance.

4. Major competitor gains market share: 15% chance.

5. Successful promotional strategies boost sales: 10% chance.


Trading Oracle: Consider entering a bullish debit spread using SCVL 03/21/2025 45.00 C and buying 50.00 C options. This strategy capitalizes on upcoming earnings volatility while managing risk effectively. Given SCVL's potential upside on earnings and strong fundamentals, this trade offers a good reward-to-risk ratio.


July 25, 2024


Shoe Carnival Forecast

SCVL      Shoe Carnival











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VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SCVL



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.74)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.91)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SCVL



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.91)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.45)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.74)





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