Bullish Case: SM's recent performance, with revenue exceeding estimates and increased dividends, suggests financial resilience and potential for stock appreciation, despite short-term market pessimism.


Bearish Case: Diminished revenues and a historical price decline over ten years highlight enduring financial challenges that could perpetuate bearish sentiments affecting SM's future.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 30% chance: Increased energy demand boosts revenue, lifting SM.

2) 25% chance: Dividend policy shifts negatively impact investor confidence.

3) 45% chance: Market volatility increases, affecting option premiums and SM's price.


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March 26, 2024


SM Energy Forecast

SM        SM Energy
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: RANDOM (?)






Correlated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly with SM



MTDR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [MTDR]  Matador Resources (0.98)


OVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [OVV]  Ovintiv (0.95)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [XOP]  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.92)


PXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [PXD]  Pioneer Natural Resources (0.92)


CNX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [CNX]  CNX Resources (0.91)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to SM



FTDR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [FTDR]  Frontdoor (-0.0)


ITCI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ITCI]  Intra-Cellular Therapies (-0.0)


QRTEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [QRTEA]  Series (-0.0)


AXTA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [AXTA]  Axalta Coating Systems (0.0)


QSR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [QSR]  Restaurant Brands International (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against SM



VRSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [VRSN]  Verisign (-0.8)


BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [BCE]  BCE (-0.83)


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [XEL]  Xcel Energy (-0.86)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [ERY]  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.92)


DRIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   [DRIP]  Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. (-0.96)





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