SM Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: SM’s strong implied volatility and options volume suggest market confidence, reinforced by recent positive price performance and robust earnings.


Bearish Case: SM’s historical volatility and long-term underperformance (-42.4% in 10 years) coupled with stagnant revenue growth highlight risk of continued decline.


Potential Outcomes: Earnings growth (60%), revenue challenges (30%), external events (10%). High option volume indicates market bias towards a price surge.


Trading Oracle: Sell bullish short volatility (put) spread expiring in ~23 days: sell 1 $47.5 strike put, buy 2 $42.5 strike puts. 81% Helium profit odds with controlled risk. Leveraging current volatility structure for secure returns.


June 27, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.88)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.5)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.66)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SM



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.5)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.66)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.67)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.88)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SM



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.88)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.67)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.5)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.66)





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