SMAR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Recent earnings beat and $150M buyback signal management confidence. With stabilizing growth rates and new AI features, SMAR is well-positioned for a potential rally.


Bearish Case: Overvaluation concerns persist with high P/B ratio and declining net retention rates. Insider selling and muted institutional interest may weigh on short-term performance.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Stabilized growth and new pricing model drive 20% upside (60%).

2) Overvaluation concerns lead to 10-15% downside (40%).

3) AI integration boosts adoption rates (35%).


Trading Oracle: Initiate a 70-day bullish debit spread, buying $45 strike call and selling $50 strike call. Implied volatility term structure and market surface support lower risk. Target profit: 50%, risk: 25%, positive edge, high reward√risk, high probability-of-profit.


July 14, 2024


Smartsheet Forecast

SMAR      Smartsheet











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SMAR



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.36)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.05)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.07)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.57)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMAR



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.05)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.07)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.36)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.57)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMAR



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.36)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.05)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.07)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.57)





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