SMBC Forecast


Bullish Case: With a stable net interest margin and a recent earnings beat, SMBC shows resilience in a challenging environment. Price return heatmap indicates a high probability of positive returns over the coming year.


Bearish Case: Decreasing profitability, director stock sales, and high interest rates could weigh on SMBC's performance. High implied volatility indicates market anticipation of significant downside risk.


Potential Outcomes: High expected volatility (60%) suggests considerable price swings. A modest uptick in earnings (30%) could lead to a slight price increase, while sustained negative trends (10%) may drive further declines.


Trading Oracle: Deploy a credit spread (short volatility) strategy on SMBC, specifically selling August $40 puts and buying August $35 puts. This strategy leverages high implied volatility and has a positive reward-to-risk ratio. Anticipate moderate price stability in the next 60 days.


June 27, 2024


Southern Missouri Bancorp Forecast

SMBC      Southern Missouri Bancorp











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SMBC



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.38)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.14)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.01)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.47)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMBC



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.01)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.14)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.38)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.47)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMBC



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.38)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.14)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.01)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.47)


SMBC News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.






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