SMID Forecast


Bullish Case: SMID's strong historical performance for holdings over a year and the potential for infrastructure tailwinds promote a positive view. YTD performance and AI forecast remain conducive.


Bearish Case: SMID's mean-reverting nature and recent price drops signal continued downside risk. Historical patterns and AI correlation (-0.3) suggest challenges in maintaining upward momentum.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued growth (30%): Infrastructure tailwinds and AI bullishness.

2. Market correction (50%): Mean reversion trends and high recent volatility.

3. Volatility spike (20%): Historical patterns and macroeconomic factors.


Trading Oracle: Bearish bias on SMID remains warranted. Recommend Helium Short Volatility credit spreads over the next 3 months. Target premium expiry within Q3 2024 leveraging historical mean-reversion. High probability-of-profit due to recent price behavior.


July 18, 2024


Smith-Midland Forecast

SMID      Smith-Midland











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SMID



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.56)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.05)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.37)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.4)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMID



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.05)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.37)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.4)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.56)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMID



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.56)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.05)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.37)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.4)





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