SMID Forecast

Bullish Case: SMID trades at an 86% YTD increase, with AI forecasting +1.35% daily. Likelihood of high returns in >1-year holdings.

Bearish Case: SMID's 21.9% drop in 90 days signals high risk, with mean reversion patterns. Correlation of realized price with AI forecast is -0.3.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued growth (35%): AI bullish, strong YTD performance.

2. Market correction (45%): Mean reversion trend, high recent volatility.

3. Volatility spike (20%): Mean reversion, historical patterns.

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June 19, 2024

Smith-Midland Forecast

SMID      Smith-Midland

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