SMMT Forecast


Bullish Case: Summit Therapeutics’ ivonescimab outperforms Keytruda in Phase 3 trials, spurring significant investor confidence and potential future gains as clinical and regulatory milestones are met.


Bearish Case: Despite promising clinical data, high implied volatility and legal/regulatory hurdles could lead to sharp price corrections, eroding investor confidence in SMMT.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continuous positive trial results bolster stock (+30%) (60%).

2. Legal issues or regulatory setbacks drive it lower (-40%) (30%).

3. Neutral market impact with fluctuating volatility (10%).


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish long volatility strategy via call debit spreads. Buy Jan 2025 $10.00 C, Sell Jan 2025 $15.00 C. This leverages potential upside amid high implied volatility with strong reward-to-risk ratio. Focus on intermediate-term (~6 months) for optimal profit potential.


July 18, 2024


Summit Therapeutics Forecast

SMMT      Summit Therapeutics











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VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.65)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMMT



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.24)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.65)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.83)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMMT



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.83)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.24)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.65)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.72)





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