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SMP Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: SMP's high implied volatility signals potential for aggressive bullish recovery, especially with strategic product expansions and positive social media sentiment. Continued strength in dividend and fundamentals may attract investors.



Bearish Case: High volatility and historical downturns suggest risk. Continued institutional sell-offs and economic pressures, alongside innovation lag in vehicle parts, pose threats to SMP's short-term performance.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Strategic expansions boost sales 20% (35%);

2. Institutional sales trigger 15% decline (30%);

3. Earnings miss leads to 10% drop (20%);

4. Market sentiment rebounds, driving recovery (15%).



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying SMP 35.00 calls and selling 30.00 puts for May expiration. Leverage current high volatility for upside potential. Target timeframe: 3-5 months for profitable earnings bounce-back.


December 26, 2024


Standard Motor Products Forecast

SMP        Standard Motor Products

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TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (0.01)


PEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PEP  Pepsico (0.01)


UWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWM  ProShares Ultra Russell2000 (-0.02)


PH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PH  Parker-Hannifin (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMP


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (-0.52)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (-0.53)


LICY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LICY  Li-Cycle Holdings Corp (-0.54)


MPWR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPWR  Monolithic Power System (-0.57)


LLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LLY  Lilly(Eli) (-0.57)







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